Gartner Group's CPP '97 vision serves up mostly safe choices

The Opinion Makers

L ike a whale with its feeder fish, the rise of computer technology has created a number of thriving cottage industries that depend on its success. Magazines, newsletters, trade shows, and market research consulting all exist to slake the insatiable thirst for information about computer technology. Sometimes this cottage industry becomes so powerful that it's hard to tell who is really in the driver's seat: the product producers or those who analyze and comment upon them. The artist M.C. Escher would have understood the relationship perfectly.
      If the world suddenly lost interest in information technology, both sides of this "hand drawing the hand" equation would be in deep trouble. Although that's unlikely to happen, market analysts do play a key role--and sometimes seem to have a vested interest--in the rise of particular industry sectors. Using their wisdom, they communicate how big the market will be and what kind of adoption rate to expect. Many of the same analysts then consult with end user organizations to aid and influence their product decisions and IT direction.
      What do the analysts and marketeers read? Aside from all the other literature and analyses, the bible of technology marketing is Crossing the Chasm (HarperBusiness, 1991), written by Geoffrey A. Moore. Formerly a partner of Regis McKenna, Moore is a man whose name is invoked at nearly every press briefing I attend. If you want to understand how vendors are marketing their products these days, read this book.
      I was reading Chasm, as well as my usual handful of magazines, white papers, and Baseball Weekly on the plane to Chicago last September for Gartner Group's CPP '97 conference. Gartner is the behemoth of the market analysis community. Founded by Gideon Gartner in 1979, the company now has revenues in the $400 million range. CPP '97 has primarily become a showcase for Gartner's high-powered consultants who cover scalable computing, data warehousing, business intelligence, and database management. Since what Gartner's people say carries such influence (and guides what the marketing people say about their products, which influences what the press says, which in turn influences what Gartner says--like the Escher artwork), I would like to highlight some of their key points.
      Tony Percy, vice president and research center director, is Gartner's top gun regarding data management, middleware, and systems management. He took on scalability--the central topic of the conference. He recounted how in the 1980s, scalability meant throwing hardware at the problem and attempting capacity planning. Now, it revolves around a delicate balance of ingredients and increasing the potential for information sharing. He offered seven "Rules of Combat," which I'll take the liberty of quoting:

• If data is artificially distributed, consolidate.
• If data has to be dispersed, synchronize.
• If a dedicated DSS is required, move and transform.
• If DSS access needs optimization, replicate.
• If workloads cannot be scaled, partition.
• If availability is critical, duplicate (everything).
• If multiple stores have to be made consistent, broker.